研报：欧洲外汇和债券市场表面上风平浪静 背后呢？

译者 王为

文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明

EuroPE‘s Calm FX， Bond Markets Masking Anxiety？

By Erik Norland

The Eurozone economy STalled in the fourth quarter of 2019 after seven years of recovery， dragged by a contraction in France and Italy， stagnation in Germany and the European Central Bank （ECB） holding firm to negative interest rates at -0.4% even as core inflation hovered just below 1% at the end of last year．

受累于法国和意大利经济负增长、德国经济增长乏力以及欧洲央行无视欧元区的核心通胀率在2019年底时处于略低于1%水平的事实执意将政策性利率的水平维持在-0.4%等因素，欧元区经济在连续七年扩张后于2019年四季度开始陷入停滞。

And that was before COVID-19． The region’s economy is now widely expected to shrink by 4% to 8% in 2020 and budgets that were close to being balanced overall in 2019 are widely expected to show deficits of 20% or more of GDP this year as spending surges and tax revenues dwindle． The ECB， meanwhile， has ventured deeper into negative-rate territory， cutting rates to -0.5%．

这一切都发生在新冠疫情到来之前。如今市场上普遍认为欧元区的经济总量将在2020年里缩水4%到8%，而2019年已近乎实现预算收支整体平衡的大好局面如今也被广泛认为将恶化到2020年欧元区各国的预算赤字将不低于GDP总量的20%，因在财政支出大增的同时税收收入却在减少。与此同时，已身陷负利率政策的欧洲央行继续将基础利率的水平降至-0.5%。

Despite these challenges， European markets have reacted with relative aplomb． European equity markets have risen although somewhat below the performance of their US counterparts， while the euro （EUR） and the European bond market have been remarkably stable （Figures 1 and 2）． Italian and Spanish bond spreads have widened but so far nothing akin to the 2009-2012 period has happened．

尽管面临这些挑战，但欧洲金融市场的反应却坦然自若。升幅虽不及美国，但欧洲股市毕竟也在上涨，而欧元汇率以及欧洲债券市场的走势则相对比较平稳，见下图1和图2。意大利和西班牙国债的收益率与德国同期限国债的收益率之间的利差虽有所扩大，但扩大的幅度没有2009-2012年期间那么大。

Figure 1： With the US and Europe in a similar position， EURUSD has shown little reaction to COVID-19

图1：虽然欧美同样受到新冠疫情的影响，但欧元/美元的汇率走势却波澜不惊，图中浅蓝线为欧元/美元汇率，深蓝线为英镑/美元汇率

Figure 2： Compared to 2009-12， European bonds have been cool， calm and collected

图2：与2009-2012年相比，当下欧洲债券市场的反应称得上是既冷静又理性，下图中是欧元区各主要国家10年期国债收益率的走势

That Eurozone bonds have been stable is remarkable．Not only have bond holders had to contend with dramatically deteriorating fiscal conditions across the currency zone， but， on May 5， Germany’s Constitutional Court upheld several complaints against the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Program （PSPP）， which is the main vehicle used by ECB to prevent a widening of bond yield spreads between the debt of various Eurozone members．For its part， the ECB responded by saying that it was under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and not national courts．

欧元区债券市场的安之若素不禁让人啧啧称奇。不仅因为债券投资者需要应对欧元区各国财政状况急剧恶化的局面，而且德国宪法法院在5月5日做出裁决力挺针对欧洲央行的“公共部门债券购买计划”的反对意见，而“公共部门债券购买计划”是欧洲央行颇为倚重的一项手段，目的是防止欧元区各成员国的国债收益率之间的利差进一步扩大。欧洲央行这边则回应称此案的司法管辖权应归欧洲法院而非各个成员国的法院。

At the very least， this controversy reminds investors of the Eurozone’s unique set up：it has a common currency but 19 DIFferent national fiscal policies．Lacking a common fiscal policy， Eurozone members are supposed to adhere to certain rules including：

但至少，这一争议让投资者再次注意到欧元区独特的构成机制：欧元区有共同的货币，但19个成员国的财政政策却相互独立。由于缺乏统一的财政政策，欧元区各成员国被认为应该遵守以下几项规则：