全球股市、货币和黄金将对石油市场产生巨大影响

据8月17日FXSTreet报道，几个月来，石油市场的价格走势一直是较平稳，因为疲弱的基本面背景使油价没有大幅上涨，而一些外部影响和宏观发展的限制使油价没有大幅下跌。荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）认为，总体而言，在可预见的未来，全球股市、货币市场和黄金等关键宏观市场对油价的影响可能对油价产生巨大影响。

荷兰合作银行表示：“目前基本面情况相当疲软，在可预见的未来，真正可能对油价产生巨大影响的，可能是这些非基本面因素，以及更多与宏观市场驱动因素。因此，美元无疑是一个值得关注的关键市场。除美元外，全球股市甚至黄金都可能对油价产生重大影响，正如本周早些时候所表现出来的那样，黄金和贵金属大幅下跌，而石油价格反弹，在我们看来，这似乎是相互关联的，可能与跨大宗商品行业的发展趋势有关。”

该银行补充道：“从根本上来说，正如我们所看到的，石油需求复苏相当脆弱，随着北半球进入秋天，疫情引发的第二波封锁的风险很高。除了对石油需求的担忧外，来自美国的供应上行风险是可能发生的。至于市场资金流动方面，我们将继续密切关注宏观背景，以及考虑通胀情况和投资者持有实际资产的意愿。就目前而言，无论是从历史角度还是从横向对比来看，大宗商品都显得便宜。我们不能排除发生像本世纪10年代中期那样大规模购买大宗商品期货的可能性。”

王佳晶 摘译自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Oil： Fresh catalysts to arrive from macro developments – Rabobank

It’s been sideways price action in oil markets for months now as a weak fundamental backdrop has kePT prices from running too far to the upside while the downside has been limited by a number of outside influences and macro developments． All in all， key macro markets such as global equities， currencies and gold are likely to have an outsized impact on oil prices for the foreseeable future relative to oil fundamentals， PEr Rabobank．

“The fundamental story is rather dull at the moment and it’s really these non-fundamental and more macro related market drivers that are likely to have an out-sized impact on oil prices for the foreseeable future． As such， the US dollar is certainly a key market to watch． On top of the dollar， global equity markets and even gold are likely to have a major influence on oil prices as was on full display earlier this week as gold and the precious metals fell sharply while the oil complex rallied， which to our minds， appeared interconnected and possibly related to a cross-commodity sector momentum unwind．”

“Fundamentally speaking， the oil demand recovery is quite fragile as we see it and the risk of a second wave of virus-inspired lockdowns is high as we head into the fall in the Northern hemisphere． On top of the oil demand concerns， upside supply risk from the US is possible．”

“As for market flows， we continue to keep a close eye on the macro backdrop and the desire for investors to own real assets given inflation fears． As of right now， commodities look cheap on both a historical perspective and a relative one so wide-scale buying of commodity futures such as we saw in the mid-2000s cannot be ruled out．”